
Nearly 10 per cent of the Canadian population lives in 68 communities that are susceptible to workforce disruption as Canada and the world reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. Workforce disruption can be driven by investments in new technologies, a decline in certain industries or growth in new opportunity sectors. It may be beneficial to some communities in the long run, but support will still be needed to manage the transformation.
Susceptible communities have on average smaller populations, and are generally more remote and less economically diversified. They face a range of challenges and opportunities, with unique local assets and circumstances. Tailored, community-driven strategies are more likely to succeed than top-down, one-size-fits-all approaches.
Existing federal, provincial and territorial economic development programs provide some support, but they are not equipped to guide communities through large-scale economic and societal transformations. Many programs also lack adequate community engagement and do not have a structured approach to consider community needs in decision-making.
To reduce community susceptibility and promote lasting resilience, the Institute for Research on Public Policy recommends the following:
Ninety per cent of Canadaâs population lives in cities and communities with relatively low levels of susceptibility to the changes in policy, technology and markets that come with global and domestic efforts to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. However, 68 communities across the country, or roughly 10 per cent of the Canadian population, require more attention (figures 1 and 2).
A comprehensive analysis undertaken by the Institute for Research on Public Policy (IRPP) and the Community Data Program under the Canadian Community Economic Development Network assessed the susceptibility of communities across Canada to at least one of three types of challenges (Chejfec et al., 2025):
It is important to note that, while these challenges increase the potential for workforce disruption, they do not necessarily imply job loss. In fact, many communities could see overall job creation in the long term (Clean Energy Canada, 2023). In these cases, disruption could mean that workers need to shift roles or retrain to gain new skills. A large influx of new workers â as is the case in some communities with new electric vehicle battery manufacturing investments â could also be disruptive, particularly amid a housing shortage (IRPP 2025a; Moore, 2024).
The 68 communities identified as susceptible in the IRPPâs Community Transformations Project have several things in common. First, they have smaller populations. Susceptible communities have an average population of around 53,000 people (figure 3).
Second, they are more remote. Average remoteness scores for susceptible communities are more than double those of communities that are not susceptible, according to Statistics Canadaâs Index of Remoteness (figure 4; Statistics Canada, 2023a).
Third, they are less economically diverse. On average, susceptible communities have economic diversity scores that are 36 per cent below those of communities that are not susceptible. The scores are based on the Hachman Index, developed by U.S. economist Frank Hachman. The index evaluates the economic diversity of communities based on how closely the composition of their industries matches that of the jurisdiction in which they are located (Benway, 2019). The IRPPâs analysis is based on the province or territory in which the community is situated (see figure 5).
These three factors may make it more difficult for displaced workers to find another job in their community. When a smaller community is not within driving distance of another population centre and is highly dependent on a single employer or sector, it is at greater risk of experiencing community-wide disruption. In this case, it would not just be workers in the susceptible sectors facing disruption but also workers and entrepreneurs who work as suppliers in local restaurants, service provision and other sectors. Local governments could struggle if tax revenues decline substantially (Jacques, 2023). Housing prices could decline, which could lead to homeowners owing more than their homes are worth, a loss of equity that would make it difficult to purchase a home in another community (Feng et al., 2022).
A remote community with lower levels of economic diversity tends to be more vulnerable to economic shocks, such as changes in commodity prices or demand. If youth and working-age people leave the community after a downturn, there can be shortages of labour, knowledge and expertise.
It is also difficult for many rural and remote communities to attract new immigrants (Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada, 2019).
There are 131 Indigenous communities located within the census divisions identified as susceptible (Chejfec et al., 2025; Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada, 2024). Many Indigenous communities rely on susceptible sectors for employment, contract work and revenue generation (Statistics Canada, 2023b).
Susceptible communities share similarities, but also important differences. Each sector, business and facility faces its own unique challenges and opportunities, and communities may have different local assets that influence their ability to take advantage of opportunities.
The top five sectors affected by each susceptibility challenge include resource-based industries, manufacturing, food production and truck transportation (table 1). Each sector has its own pathway to net zero, some with transformations already well underway and others with more uncertain or long-term transformations. The readiness and cost of emission-reduction technologies also vary across sectors. Additionally, communities themselves will have varying circumstances that depend on their distance from other employment opportunities, the skill sets of the workforce, the potential to capture new economic opportunities and other factors.
Consider, for example, three hypothetical communities identified as susceptible:
Community 1 faces a near-term challenge that is likely to result in job loss unless new investments are made in the community. However, it also has certainty about the nature and timing of the transformation and some financial support from governments. Its distance from major population centres makes finding alternative work in or near the community challenging. There are some developing opportunities in solar and geothermal energy, but they are unlikely to fully replace jobs lost from the coal-fired power plant closure. New forms of economic development will be needed to create additional employment.
Community 2 also faces a near-term challenge because the shift from traditional auto assembly to electric-vehicle assembly requires new skill sets. It is possible to train existing workers for many of the roles, but workers who do not have a post-secondary education may need to do additional courses. Many are also worried about the loss of income during training. Parts manufacturers are concerned that the shift could lead to reduced demand for their products, which could lead to layoffs. Another population centre in the region offers some potential for alternative employment at another manufacturing facility, but the long commute would be challenging.
Community 3, with currently high employment levels and strong demand for its oil, faces a longer-term challenge. However, because most of the oil that it produces is exported to other countries, fluctuations in global demand and prices can be more difficult to predict and could mean that change will come suddenly. Scenario analysis by the Canada Energy Regulator (2023) highlights the susceptibility of Canadian oil production to scenarios in which global oil demand declines as transportation systems electrify. Carbon capture and storage technology offers the potential to reduce the emissions intensity of oil production, but the technology will not insulate oil production from fluctuations in global oil prices or declining demand.
These three very different communities highlight the need for different transformation plans to respond to the challenges they each face. The best plan for one community may not be the best plan for another.
When developing strategies for community transformations, there are many lessons that can be learned from previous experience, in Canada and abroad.
Take Rochester, New York, for example. The closure of its Kodak photography-technology plant in 2012 led to the development of a more diverse economy with higher levels of employment, capitalizing on repurposed Kodak infrastructure and skill sets. However, the new employment opportunities in health care, education, and consumer and business services mainly benefited workers with post-secondary education. Workers without post-secondary education were left with lower wages and job security (Atteridge & Strambo, 2021a).
Ontarioâs Prince Edward County has seen rapid growth in tourism in recent years, which would be considered a success by traditional metrics. The county of around 26,000 permanent residents had almost 500,000 tourists in 2019, mainly in the summer months. Although tourism supports the local economy, residents complain that skyrocketing home prices mean that young people who grew up in the county canât afford to live there, local beaches are inaccessible, and that traffic congestion, garbage and noise are affecting their quality of life. Janice Maynard, a local councillor, put it this way: âWe donât want to end up with an unlivable community and lose what makes us a special placeâ (Capon, 2021; Jamal & Gordon, 2024).
These types of experiences have led many experts to advocate for a shift away from top-down development strategies focused solely on economic growth or business investment toward more holistic community-led plans that centre on quality of life, sustainability and equity (Jamal & Gordon, 2024; Mendelsohn, 2022; Rajan, 2019).
One way to pursue a community-led plan is through Asset-Based Community Development (ABCD), which involves working with residents to identify the strengths of the community that can form the basis of a plan (figure 6). Zita Cobb, founder of Shorefast, an organization that helps communities thrive in a global economy, argues that âdevelopment is about uplifting the inherent assets of a placeâ (Shorefast, 2023). ABCD differs from the historical focus on the deficiencies and needs of communities.
By focusing on the assets of a community â whether they are natural, built, human, cultural or organizational â communities can develop a positive vision for the future and craft an action plan that capitalizes on those assets (table 2).
For example, after a major pulp and paper mill closed in 2006, Cornwall, Ontario, reinvented itself as a distribution hub, taking advantage of its strategic location between Toronto and Montreal, as well as its proximity to a bridge to the U.S. Its skilled labour force and lower costs also proved attractive. Cornwall didnât just pursue one business, however. It secured its success by attracting several businesses so that, even when some employers closed, the community could easily adapt (Massena BOA, 2017).
Port Alberni, British Columbia, sought to shift its economic focus to capitalize on its deep-water port and inlet location when its forestry sector declined. It is pursuing shipbuilding, seaweed aquaculture and food processing (Rardon, 2023). One of the local paper mills also transitioned from making printing and writing paper to food packaging material, with support from a federal program (Chan, 2022).
Once a community has identified its assets, it needs a concrete action plan with clear deliverables and a reporting framework with built-in monitoring and evaluation (Krawchenko, 2022). And, importantly, it needs dynamic âcommunity connectorsâ to bring together the individuals, associations and institutions to develop and execute the action plan (GarcĂa, 2020).
These connectors often leverage and build community capacity, while strengthening the social acceptance of the development strategies that emerge. In communities that have successfully transformed, there is often an organization or an individual that has taken on this instrumental role (Coop Interface, 2024; MacSween, 2023).
When Newcastle, Australia, faced the closure of its major steel plant, the state government initiated an economic development strategy for the region. However, participants noted that the effectiveness of the approach grew when the state government shifted its role from leading the strategy to supporting local efforts. A Common Purpose Group developed by the community helped to co-ordinate local interest groups and organizations (Atteridge & Strambo, 2021b).
In the book An Army of Problem Solvers, the authors argue that, to make progress on economic Reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples, governments should see their job as making it easy for community problem solvers (Loney & Braun, 2016).
Financial support for Comprehensive Community Planning (CCP) in Indigenous communities is provided by Crown Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada and Indigenous Services Canada. CCP, which engages community members in planning and implementing the long-term vision for their community, is an approach developed by First Nations in British Columbia (Comprehensive Community Planning, n.d.). Through the process, Indigenous communities assess their social, economic and physical environments, then develop goals and action plans aligned with their visions for the future. The plans typically focus on the medium to long term (25-100 years) and are designed to be culture- and community-specific (Kobzik & Krawchenko, 2023).
Research looking at various Indigenous communities in the U.S. and Canada shows a strong correlation between community self-determination and positive economic and social outcomes (Kalt et al., 2022). Yet only 40 per cent of Canadian provinces considered Indigenous economic development in their core strategic documents in 2020 (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2020).
Existing federal, provincial and territorial economic development programs play an important role and provide significant support to communities. However, without more resources and targeted efforts, they will not be up to the task of supporting communities through major economic and societal transformations. Some program adjustments have started, but there is still much to be done.
Most large-scale programs are not designed with community priorities in mind or with people from the community at the decision-making table. Municipal governments or mayors might be consulted, but community engagement is not integrated into decision-making processes (Mendelsohn, 2022).
For some of the largest programs related to economic development, community need is not really considered in funding allocations. For example, of the 137 announced projects supported by the $18.5-billion federal Strategic Innovation Fund between 2018 and 2024, only a single project is directly located in a community identified by the IRPP as most susceptible (table 3; Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada, 2024a). When a 30-kilometre commuting buffer is considered, only two projects are located near communities in the most susceptible group.
In part, this is because the Strategic Innovation Fund is not designed to prioritize community economic development, though it would be possible to include it as a consideration in the application and award process. With the right eligibility criteria in place, programs like this have the potential to improve economic outcomes in susceptible communities.
The Regional Energy and Resource Tables are joint partnerships between the federal government, led by Natural Resources Canada, and provinces, territories and Indigenous partners that aim to identify and accelerate shared economic priorities for a low-carbon future in the energy and resource sectors. The Regional Tables are providing important benefits but were not designed with significant involvement at the community level (Natural Resources Canada, 2024).
Two pieces of federal legislation could lead to greater community involvement at the federal level. The Canadian Sustainable Jobs Act and An Act respecting the building of a green economy in the Prairies both reference the importance of engaging communities.[1] The sustainable jobs legislation requires the appointment of a Partnerships Council composed of union, industry, Indigenous and NGO representatives. It also requires an action plan by 2026, and policies and programs that recognize local and regional needs. The green economy legislation calls for consultation with municipalities, Indigenous governing bodies and representatives of employers and employees in Prairie provinces.
How these pieces of legislation are implemented will be critical. A short discussion with a mayor of a community or a major employer is not the same as truly engaging with people across the community and understanding their concerns and priorities. The federal Framework to Build a Green Prairie Economy, published in 2023 in response to the legislation, identifies a foundational principle of âplace-based solutions [that] reflect and adapt to the unique interests, priorities and circumstances of Prairiesâ communities,â but does not commit to any specific measures to accomplish that goal (Prairies Economic Development Canada, 2023a, p. 5).
Legislation and plans relating to supporting workers and communities on the road to net zero tend to focus on risks and opportunities directly tied to the low-carbon transformation. While this might make sense in many regions, a broader and more flexible approach to supporting all types of economic development may be better suited to susceptible communities. The national or regional focus of federal approaches also risks spreading limited resources too thinly. Targeting investments in the susceptible communities where they are most needed could have more impact.
Because the susceptible census divisions identified by the IRPP are mainly rural and remote with small population centres, the federal economic development strategy for rural Canada released in 2024 is a positive development. The strategy includes commitments to improve high-speed internet coverage, close gaps in rural infrastructure and build more affordable housing (Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada, 2024b). The Centre for Rural Economic Development in the Department of Innovation, Science and Economic Development also has the potential to improve support for susceptible communities in partnership with the Regional Development Agencies. For example, the department is building a staff of rural advisers who will live in communities. The advisers will help communities navigate federal programming and provide a rural perspective to federal decision-makers (Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada, 2024c).
Rural advisers could influence the priorities of Regional Development Agencies, leading to greater investment in susceptible communities. However, existing data show some concerning trends. For example, departmental plans for Regional Development Agencies show that spending increased significantly during the pandemic, but is now slated to decline below pre-pandemic levels, even without accounting for inflationary pressures that have increased the cost of program delivery (figure 7). Based on an analysis of program expenditures, we estimate that spending tied to community economic diversification programs is facing one of the steepest drops. A pan-Canadian scan of strategies, plans and programs related to natural resources, energy, climate and agriculture also found that they very rarely acknowledged opportunities for rural economic development (Krawchenko et al., 2022).
Local Community Futures Organizations, which receive some funding through Regional Development Agencies, have complained that federal contributions have not increased since 2009 (figure 8; Community Futures Network of Canada, 2022). They report that in 2023 the average Community Futures Office was facing an operational funding gap of nearly $130,000 (Community Futures Network of Canada, 2024).
The metrics used by Regional Development Agencies to measure performance do not differentiate between urban and rural communities (box 1). Measures, such as the number of businesses that received funding and employment growth, are indicative but, without a way to differentiate across communities with varying needs, the agencies will not be able to provide the depth and breadth of strategic and targeted support required. The current focus on small business is important, but some communities will need a comprehensive economic strategy that involves a mix of helping existing businesses adapt to a low-carbon economy, attracting new investments that generate growth and employment, and supporting affected workers and small businesses. It is not yet clear where support for those strategies will come from.
Without clear measures of success that link directly to well-developed community strategies, spending may not be allocated to projects that provide the greatest long-term benefit for the community. For example, an evaluation of the Atlantic Canada Opportunity Agencyâs rollout of the coal transition funding provided in the 2018 and 2019 federal budgets revealed that staff were unclear on eligibility criteria and tried to fit existing project proposals under the coal transition umbrella (Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency, 2024). In Estevan, Saskatchewan, there is frustration that the federal coal transition funding will end in 2025 while there is still a lot of work to do (Institute for Research on Public Policy, 2025b).
Some provincial and territorial governments have their own dedicated programs that support community economic development and local businesses, with varying levels of capacity. British Columbia, for example, has a stream of funding aimed at supporting communities affected by changes in the forest sector. The program covers 100 per cent of project costs up to $500,000 as part of its larger Rural Economic Diversification and Infrastructure Program (Government of British Columbia, 2024). The Saskatchewan government announced $10 million in economic development for Estevan and Coronach, the two most susceptible communities in the province (Government of Saskatchewan, 2024).
In the 2030 Emission Reduction Plan released in 2022, the federal government committed to establishing a $2-billion Futures Fund to support local and regional economic diversification in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland and Labrador (Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2022). However, there has been no further elaboration on the fund since that time and a focus on only three provinces would miss several communities shown to be susceptible in the IRPPâs analysis (Chejfec et al., 2025).
While there has been a strong desire by governments to directly support local businesses, in some cases and regions this may have come at the expense of supporting larger and more co-ordinated efforts to economic development that could have a greater long-term impact.
For example, a 2019 horizontal evaluation of the federal Community Futures Program, which supports local businesses, found that some Community Futures Organizations (CFOs) have stopped engaging in community economic development or strategic planning projects due to limited financial resources. One exception is Quebec, where CFOs are required to spend a minimum of $22,000 per year on local community development projects (Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada, 2019). Canada Economic Development for Quebec Regions takes a place-based approach to investments by using an economic development index to target specific economically vulnerable areas (Canada Economic Development for Quebec Regions, n.d.).
The review also highlighted the potential for CFOs to provide strategic support, given their local presence, independence and community-led governance structure. The Community Futures Program 2022-23 Annual Report states that the network of 267 CFOs across Canada helped provide $325 million in loans to 4,913 small and medium-sized businesses in that year (Community Futures Network of Canada, n.d.). While most of the funding comes from federal Regional Development Agencies and other federal programs, some organizations obtain additional funding for specific initiatives from provincial and municipal governments.
Many small communities struggle to navigate the patchwork of funding streams available, and the administrative burden associated with funding applications. The Strategic Partnerships Initiative led by Indigenous Services Canada is one approach that aims to overcome this barrier. It supports Indigenous economic development by co-ordinating the efforts of other federal partners, helping to reduce the administrative burden for Indigenous communities and pooling multiple sources of funding (Indigenous Services Canada, 2023). For example, the Manitoba Indigenous Critical Minerals Partnerships Initiative established in 2023 supports projects relating to workforce development, capacity building and business growth linked to minerals development (Prairies Economic Development Canada, 2023b).
At the provincial level, Nova Scotia established Regional Enterprise Networks to co-ordinate approaches to community economic development (Nova Scotia Regional Enterprise Networks, n.d.). The networks work across municipal boundaries and with First Nations to create partnerships with local government, business, academia, citizens and other levels of government, with the goal of driving transformative change.
Governments tend to be reactive rather than proactive. In the case of the low-carbon transformation, if governments wait until there is a crisis in a community, it may be too late. For some communities, a successful transformation will require at least a decade of hard work in advance of a major policy or market change (Fouquet, 2016; Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2023).
Focusing on changes to climate policies as the sole solution to community concerns is not necessarily the answer because many of the susceptibilities identified are linked to global and market forces that are beyond the control of Canadian governments (Chejfec et al., 2025). Without clear and stable climate policies, there would be a reduced incentive for companies to decarbonize and shift product lines, making them and the communities where they are located even more susceptible to sudden changes in the policies of trading partners, private-sector efforts to decarbonize supply chains, financial-sector consideration of climate risks and technological change (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2023; Samson et al., 2021).
Instead, governments need to find ways to futureproof communities by better supporting strategic economic development that reflects the interests and priorities of the people who live and work in those communities. The following recommendations are an initial set of actions governments can take to advance this goal.
While federal support in areas such as infrastructure, transit and housing centres on community needs, large-scale economic development funding is more likely to focus on sectors or technologies. The IRPPâs methodology for evaluating susceptibility at the community level offers an opportunity for federal, provincial and territorial governments to incorporate the approach into their decision-making on project funding and investment incentives (box 2; Chejfec et al., 2025).
For example, the federal Strategic Innovation Fund could favour projects in and around susceptible communities or cover a higher proportion of their project costs. Tax incentives for clean energy and manufacturing could also be more generous for projects in susceptible communities. Governments could also establish new programs that target susceptible communities.
These types of place-based investments would be similar to the approach taken by the Inflation Reduction Act. The act applies a bonus of up to 10 per cent for production tax credits and 10 percentage points for investment tax credits for projects, facilities and technologies located in energy communities. Energy communities are defined as brownfields (polluted sites), census tracts (and their neighbouring tracts) with a coal-fired power plant or mine closure, and census tracts that meet certain employment and revenue thresholds (Interagency Working Group on Coal and Power Plant Communities and Economic Revitalization, n.d.-a). Canada should, however, avoid replicating U.S. eligibility criteria since they are less applicable to Canadian needs and have been criticized in the U.S. (Raimi & Pesek, 2022; Raimi et al., 2024).
Initially, a U.S. Interagency Working Group focused on 25 communities with the highest proportion of employment in the coal sector, with rapid response teams working with communities to identify economic transformation and revitalization goals (Interagency Working Group on Coal and Power Plant Communities and Economic Revitalization, n.d.-b).
The U.S. Opportunity Zones model, which provides a tax incentive for private investment in low-income communities, may also be an approach to explore (Speer, 2023; U.S. Economic Development Administration, n.d.).
Early results from the program indicate mixed success, with 48 per cent of eligible communities receiving investment (Coyne & Johnson, 2023). Critics have noted that communities with pre-existing trends of population and income growth and lower levels of unemployment and poverty were more likely to receive investments (Kennedy & Wheeler, 2021).
When developing any location-based criteria for funding, it will be important that federal, provincial, and territorial governments work together and come to an agreement on the eligibility criteria used so that it is harmonized across programs.
Clearly defined incentives for private-sector investment in communities are often preferable to establishing new funds, due to a reduced administrative burden for businesses, governments and communities, and greater clarity for a wide range of potential private investors (Criscuolo et al., 2022). However, some communities may need complementary government funding to address infrastructure gaps or to secure a major investment with substantial regional benefits. Community Benefit Agreements or equity stakes in projects may also be ways to ensure that people in the community benefit from private-sector investments (Canada Infrastructure Bank, 2023; Toronto Community Benefits Network, n.d.).
Successfully navigating economic and workforce disruption requires dedicated resources close to the community. Community Futures Organizations could better support susceptible communities if their mandate was expanded to include more community support for strategic planning and capacity building, and greater collaboration with rural advisers as well as federal and provincial/territorial organizations working on strategies and programming related to Sustainable Jobs and economic development.
Yet CFOs are limited in their ability to support communities because of long-term financial constraints and the declining real value of program funding due to inflation (Community Futures Network of Canada, 2024; Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada, 2019). With more program funding, the Community Futures Network could be mobilized to deliver enhanced in-community supports and services that help rural businesses and address federal priorities (Community Futures Network of Canada, 2024). This network is well positioned to assist communities through the low-carbon transformation, with programs such as the Community Futures British Columbia Rural Resiliency Initiative already in place (Community Futures British Columbia, n.d.). In cases where another local entity is already leading an economic development strategy, the Community Futures Organization could support its work with additional funding.
Dedicated resources in the community could also help develop tailored agreements with federal, provincial or territorial governments that reflect the needs and concerns of communities. In its submission to the Standing Committee on Natural Resources, the Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation suggested Net Zero Planning Agreements to engage in a nation-to-nation and government-to-government relationship. The agreements would be modelled on the conservation agreements used under the Species at Risk Act through which communities work with governments to develop actions to achieve shared goals (Fung, 2023).
Other countries have used agreements to provide clarity on the path forward. For example, Spainâs Just Transition Unit actively manages Just Transition Agreements and tripartite agreements between states, companies and trade unions involved in plant closures to ensure that workers have access to new jobs and training (Instituto para la transiciĂłn justa, 2022). Australia established a Net Zero Economy Authority tasked with brokering investments to create jobs in regions and support workers through change. The authority was set up under the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, giving it additional weight and the ability to co-ordinate across departments. In fact, policy co-ordination and coherence will be a key role (Australian Government, n.d.).
This centralized information hub could be similar to the federal Canadian Centre for Energy Information, which describes itself as a âone-stop virtual shop for independent and trusted information on energy in Canadaâ (Canadian Centre for Energy Information, n.d.). It could be housed within Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada and supported by the Regional Development Agencies and Natural Resources Canada. It could start with data and information that already exist in federal departments, adding a user-friendly dashboard and navigation tool. Down the line, it could add data and resources from provincial, territorial, municipal and Indigenous governments, as well as community organizations.
The centre could collect and provide market analysis, community-level data and case studies that can help communities and other levels of government respond to local circumstances in ways that reflect the latest information and best practices. As transformations unfold, communities will be keenly interested in the approaches being taken elsewhere. A 2024 regional economic development workshop in Newfoundland and Labrador identified region-to-region mentorship as a key opportunity to share information and best practices (Municipalities NL et al., 2024). The centre could facilitate regular online or in-person gatherings of communities developing transformation plans. The European Union is pursuing something similar with a Just Transition Platform that enables common transition planning structures across EU countries and promotes physical and virtual gatherings for exchanging best practices across stakeholders (European Commission, n.d.).
The centre could work closely with the Sustainable Jobs Secretariat established within Natural Resources Canada, which is also described as a âone-stop shopâ for workers and employers to receive information about available programs, funding and services (Natural Resources Canada, 2023). However, the centre should also have strong connections to Statistics Canada, Employment and Social Development Canada, Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada, Regional Development Agencies, Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada, Indigenous Services Canada, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada, and Global Affairs Canada as well as provincial and territorial governments.
In a 2022 review of the coal-transition initiative, the Commissioner for the Environment and Sustainable Development (part of the Office of the Auditor General of Canada), recommended that the federal government establish indicators and determine data requirements to measure and monitor the long-term effects of the coal phaseout on affected workers and communities (Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development, 2022). The proposed centre could help support ongoing performance measurement across a range of indicators.
Canada is well positioned to succeed as global efforts to address climate change accelerate, but some communities and workers will need additional support to prepare and adapt. Proactive, long-term support across all levels of government will help communities leverage local assets and capture new opportunities. By better aligning funding with community needs, expanding the mandate of Community Futures Organizations, and establishing a Canadian Centre for Community Transformation, governments can proactively boost resilience across Canadian communities.
[1] The full title of the sustainable jobs legislation is An Act respecting accountability, transparency and engagement to support the creation of sustainable jobs for workers and economic growth in a net-zero economy.
Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency. (2024). Evaluation of the Canada Coal Transition Initiative (CCTI) and the CCTI-Infrastructure Fund. https://www.canada.ca/en/atlantic-canada-opportunities/corporate/transparency/evaluation-ccti-and-ccti-infrastructure-fund.html
Atteridge, A., & Strambo, C. (2021a). Closure of the Kodak plant in Rochester, United States: Lessons from industrial transitions. Stockholm Environment Institute.
https://www.sei.org/publications/kodak-plan-rochester
Atteridge, A., & Strambo, C. (2021b). Closure of steelworks in Newcastle, Australia: Lessons from industrial transitions. Stockholm Environment Institute.
https://www.sei.org/publications/newcastle-steelworks/
Australian Government. (n.d.) Net Zero Economy Authority. Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet. https://www.pmc.gov.au/netzero/net-zero-economy-authority
Benway, DJ. (2019). Measuring economic diversity: The Hachman Index, 2017. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, University of Utah. http://gardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/HachmanBriefFinal.pdf
Canada Economic Development for Quebec Regions. (n.d.). Targeted support for Quebecâs economically vulnerable RCMs. Government of Canada. https://ced.canada.ca/en/funding/targeted-support-for-quebecs-economically-vulnerable-rcms/
Canada Energy Regulator. (2023). Canadaâs energy future 2023: Energy supply and demand projections to 2050. https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/canada-energy-future/2023/
Canada Infrastructure Bank. (2023, November 27). Canada Infrastructure Bank launches new Indigenous Equity Initiative [News release]. https://cib-bic.ca/en/medias/articles/canada-infrastructure-bank-launches-new-indigenous-equity-initiative/
Canadian Centre for Energy Information. (n.d.). Canadian Centre for Energy Information.
https://energy-information.canada.ca/en
Capon, S. (2021, July 15). Prince Edward County âa victim of its own successâ; tourism plan must serve residents. Prince Edward County News. https://www.countylive.ca/prince-edward-county-a-victim-of-its-own-success-tourism-strategy-plan-must-serve-residents/
Chan, A. (2022, June 8). Port Alberni mill receives $4.5M to begin producing food packaging. CTV News. https://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/port-alberni-mill-receives-4-5m-to-begin-producing-food-packaging-1.5938906
Chejfec, R., Samson, R., & Jackson, A. (2025). The Community Transformations Project: Supporting workers and communities on the road to net zero. A methodology for measuring community susceptibility. Institute for Research on Public Policy.
Clean Energy Canada. (2023). A pivotal moment. Morris J. Wosk Centre for Dialogue, Simon Fraser University. https://cleanenergycanada.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/A-Pivotal-Moment-Report.pdf
Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development. (2022). Just transition to a low-carbon economy. Report of the Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development to the Parliament of Canada. Office of the Auditor General of Canada.
https://www.oag-bvg.gc.ca/internet/English/parl_cesd_202204_01_e_44021.html
Community Futures British Columbia. (n.d.). Rural Resiliency Initiative.
https://www.communityfutures.ca/projects/rural-resiliency-initiative
Community Futures Network of Canada. (n.d.) Annual report 2022-23: Empowering small businesses, strengthening our communities. Community Futures Network of Canada.
https://communityfuturescanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/CFNC_2022-2023-Annual-Report-FINAL_EN.pdf
Community Futures Network of Canada. (2022). Written submission for the pre-budget consultations in advance of the 2022 budget. https://www.ourcommons.ca/Content/Committee/441/FINA/Brief/BR11513048/br-external/CommunityFuturesNetworkOfCanada-e.pdf
Community Futures Network of Canada. (2024). Written submission for the pre-budget consultations in advance of the 2025 budget. https://www.ourcommons.ca/Content/Committee/441/FINA/Brief/BR13231931/br-external/CommunityFuturesNetworkOfCanada-e.pdf
Comprehensive Community Planning. (n.d.). What is Comprehensive Community Planning?
http://www.comprehensivecommunityplanning.org/what-is-ccp.html
Coop Interface. (2024). Quebecâs CEDCs: A unique model for integrated local socio-economic development. La Corporation de dĂ©veloppement Ă©conomique communautaire (CDEC) de QuĂ©bec. https://ccednet-rcdec.ca/resource/quebecs-cedcs-a-unique-model-for-integrated-local-socio-economic-development/
Coyne, D., & Johnson, C. (2023). Use of the opportunity zone tax incentive: What the tax data tell us. Working Paper 123. Office of Tax Analysis, U.S. Department of the Treasury.
https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/131/WP-123.pdf
Criscuolo, C., Gonne, N., Kitazawa, K., & Lalanne, G. (2022). Are industrial policy instruments effective? A review of the evidence in OECD countries. OECD Science, Technology and Industry Policy Papers, No. 128, OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/57b3dae2-en
Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada. (2024). Indigenous Peoples and lands. Government of Canada. https://www.cirnac.gc.ca/eng/1605796533652/1605796625692
Environment and Climate Change Canada. (2022). 2030 emissions reduction plan: Canadaâs next steps to clean air and a strong economy. Government of Canada.
https://publications.gc.ca/site/eng/9.909338/publication.html
European Commission. (n.d.). The Just Transition Mechanism: Making sure no one is left behind. https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/priorities-2019-2024/european-green-deal/finance-and-green-deal/just-transition-mechanism_en
Feng, X., Jaimovich, N., Rao, K., Terry, S. J., & Vincent, N.(2023). Location, location, location: Manufacturing and house price growth. The Economic Journal 133(653), 2055-2067.
https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead008
Fouquet, R. (2016). Historical energy transitions: Speed, prices and system transformation. Energy Research & Social Science, 22, 7-12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2016.08.014
Fung, B. (2023). Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation submission on Bill C-50.
https://www.ourcommons.ca/Content/Committee/441/RNNR/Brief/BR12773392/br-external/AthabascaChipewyanFirstNation-e.pdf
GarcĂa, I. (2020). Asset-Based Community Development (ABCD): Core principles. In R. Phillips, E. Trevan, & P. Kraeger (Eds.), Research handbook on community development (pp. 67-75). Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781788118477.00010
Government of British Columbia. (2024). Rural Economic Diversification and Infrastructure Program (REDIP). https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/employment-business/economic-development/support-organizations-community-partners/rural-economic-development/redip
Government of Saskatchewan. (2024, September 23). Additional support to Estevan and Coronach regions for coal transition [News release].
Indigenous Services Canada. (2023). Strategic Partnerships Initiative. Government of Canada. https://www.sac-isc.gc.ca/eng/1330016561558/1594122175203
Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada. (2019). Horizontal evaluation of the Community Futures Program. Government of Canada. https://ised-isde.canada.ca/site/audits-evaluations/en/evaluation/horizontal-evaluation-community-futures-program
Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada. (2024a). Projects: Strategic Innovation Fund. Government of Canada. https://ised-isde.canada.ca/site/strategic-innovation-fund/en/investments/projects
Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada. (2024b). Rural opportunity, national prosperity: An economic development strategy for rural Canada. https://ised-isde.canada.ca/site/rural/en/rural-opportunity-national-prosperity-economic-development-strategy-rural-canada
Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada. (2024c). The Centre for Rural Economic Development. https://ised-isde.canada.ca/site/rural/en/centre-rural-economic-development#ready
Institute for Research on Public Policy (IRPP). (2025a). Ingersoll: Ontario auto town on the front lines of the EV transition.
Institute for Research on Public Policy (IRPP). (2025b). Estevan: Saskatchewanâs Energy City seeks to chart its own course.
Instituto para la transiciĂłn justa. (2022). Spain, towards a just energy transition. https://www.transicionjusta.gob.es/Documents/Noticias/common/220707_Spain_JustTransition.pdf
Interagency Working Group on Coal and Power Plant Communities and Economic Revitalization. (n.d.-a). Energy Community Tax Credit Bonus. U.S. Department of Energyâs National Energy Technology Laboratory. https://energycommunities.gov/energy-community-tax-credit-bonus/
Interagency Working Group on Coal and Power Plant Communities and Economic Revitalization. (n.d.-b). Rapid response teams. https://energycommunities.gov/technical-assistance/rapid-response-teams/
Jacques, O. (2023). An imbalanced federation: The unequal distribution of budget constraints in Canada. IRPP Insight 48. Institute for Research on Public Policy. https://centre.irpp.org/research-studies/imbalanced-federation-unequal-distribution-budget-constraints-canada/
Jamal, A., & Gordon, R. (2024). Grappling with governance: Emerging approaches to build community economies. Journal of Rural Studies, Article 107, 103242. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2024.103242
Kalt, J. P., Medford, A. B., & Taylor, J. B. (2022). Economic and social impacts of restrictions on the applicability of federal Indian policies to the Wabanaki Nations in Maine. Harvard Project on American Indian Economic Development Research Report. Harvard University.
https://nrs.harvard.edu/URN-3:HUL.INSTREPOS:37373789
Kennedy, P., & Wheeler, H., (2021, April 15). Neighborhood-level investment from the U.S. Opportunity Zone Program: Early evidence. https://ssrn.com/abstract=4024514
Kobzik, J., & Krawchenko, T. (2023). âWhat do we want and how do we get thereâ: A comparative content analysis of First Nations Comprehensive Community Plans in British Columbia.
Canadian Public Administration, 66(1), 45-61. https://doi.org/10.1111/capa.12507
Krawchenko, T. (2022). Managing a just transition in New Zealandâs Taranaki Region. Canadian Climate Institute. https://climateinstitute.ca/publications/managing-a-just-transition-in-new-zealands-taranaki-region/
Krawchenko, T., Hayes, B., Foster, K., & Markey, S. (2022). What is rural policy today? A pan-Canadian scan of policies for rural places. Canadian Rural Revitalization Foundation.
https://crrf.ca/what-is-rural-policy-today-a-pan-canadian-scan-of-policies-for-rural-spaces/
Loney, S., & Braun, W. (2016). An army of problem solvers: Reconciliation and the solutions economy. Encompass.
MacSween, R. (2023). The search for a new way: The story of New Dawn Enterprises. Nimbus Publishing.
Massena BOA. (2017). Appendix D. Community revitalization case studies. Massena Brownfield Opportunity Area draft revitalization plan. St. Lawrence County. https://massenaboa.skeo.com/
Mendelsohn, M. (2022). Supporting community economies: A program agenda for Canada. Shorefast. https://shorefast.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Shorefast_Supporting-Community-Economies.pdf
Moore, O. (2024, February 10). Windsor is expecting an economic rebound â and a housing crunch. The Globe and Mail. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-windsor-is-expecting-an-economic-rebound-and-a-housing-crunch/
Municipalities NL, NL Association of CBDBs, the Leslie Harris Centre of Regional Policy and Development, & Community Sector Council NL. (2024). Regional economic development workshop 2023: Setting a course.
Natural Resources Canada. (2023). Sustainable Jobs Plan. Government of Canada.
https://natural-resources.canada.ca/transparency/reporting-and-accountability/plans-and-performance-reports/sustainable-jobs-plan/25381
Natural Resources Canada. (2024). Regional energy and resource tables. Government of Canada. https://natural-resources.canada.ca/climate-change/regional-energy-and-resource-tables/24356
Nova Scotia Regional Enterprise Networks. (n.d.). Collaborating for success, partnering for progress. https://nsrens.ca/rens/
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2020). Linking Indigenous communities with regional development in Canada. OECD Rural Policy Reviews. https://doi.org/10.1787/fa0f60c6-en
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2023). Learning from past and ongoing transitions. In job creation and local economic development 2023: Bridging the great green divide, OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/7229bf95-en
Prairies Economic Development Canada. (2023a). The framework to build a green prairie economy. Government of Canada. https://www.canada.ca/en/prairies-economic-development/programs/green-prairie-economy/framework.html
Prairies Economic Development Canada. (2023b, May 16). New federal investments to support Indigenous communitiesâ participation in mineral development projects in Manitoba [News release]. Government of Canada. https://www.canada.ca/en/prairies-economic-development/news/2023/05/new-federal-investments-to-support-indigenous-communities-participation-in-mineral-development-projects-in-manitoba.html
Raimi, D., & Pesek, S. (2022). What is an âenergy communityâ? Alternative approaches for geographically targeted energy policy. Resources for the Future. https://www.rff.org/publications/reports/what-is-an-energy-community-alternative-approaches-for-geographically-targeted-energy-policy/
Raimi, D., Thompson, A., & Whitlock, Z. (2024). Almost everything almost everywhere all at once: Why place-based policies are not targeting the right places. Resources for the Future.
https://www.resources.org/common-resources/almost-everything-almost-everywhere-all-at-once-why-place-based-policies-are-not-targeting-the-right-places/
Rajan, R. (2019). The third pillar: How markets and the state leave the community behind. Penguin Press.
Rardon, E. (2023, July 10). Port Alberni poised to switch economic base from forests to ocean. Vancouver Island Free Daily. https://www.vancouverislandfreedaily.com/business/port-alberni-poised-to-switch-economic-base-from-forests-to-ocean-7248103
Samson, R., Arnold, J., Ahmed, W., & Beugin, D. (2021). Sink or swim: Transforming Canadaâs economy for a global low-carbon future. Canadian Climate Institute. https://climateinstitute.ca/reports/sink-or-swim/
Shorefast. (2023). Zita Cobb joins thought leaders to discuss paradigm shifts in how we think about capital and the economy. Shorefast, News & Stories. https://shorefast.org/news-stories/zita-cobb-joins-thought-leaders-to-discuss-paradigm-shifts-in-how-we-think-about-capital-and-the-economy/
Speer, S. (2023, June 8). Canadaâs rural areas are falling behind. Hereâs how to help them thrive. The Hub. https://thehub.ca/2023/06/08/sean-speer-canadas-rural-areas-are-falling-behind-heres-how-to-help-them-thrive/
Statistics Canada. (2023a). Index of Remoteness. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/17-26-0001/172600012020001-eng.htm
Statistics Canada. (2023b). Employment in the natural resources sector by demographic characteristic. Table 36-10-0653-01. https://doi.org/10.25318/3610065301-eng
Statistics Canada. (2024). Consumer Price Index, annual average, not seasonally adjusted. Table 18-10-0005-01. https://doi.org/10.25318/1810000501-eng
Toronto Community Benefits Network. (n.d.). What is community benefits agreement, or CBA?
https://www.communitybenefits.ca/what_is_community_benefits_agreementorcba
U.S. Economic Development Administration. (n.d.). Opportunity Zones. U.S. Department of Commerce. https://www.eda.gov/grant-resources/comprehensive-economic-development-strategy/opportunity-zones
This Policy Brief was published as part of the IRPPâs Community Transformations Project. The manuscript was copy-edited by Rosanna Tamburri, proofreading was by Zofia ÂLaubitz, editorial co-ordination was by Ătienne Tremblay, production was by Chantal ÂLĂ©tourneau, publication management was by Rosanna Tamburri and art direction was by Anne Tremblay.
Rachel Samson is vice president of research at the Institute for Research on Public Policy.
Abigail Jackson is research associate at the Institute for Research on Public Policy.
Ricardo Chejfec is lead data analyst at the Institute for Research on Public Policy.
The Community Transformations Project was funded in part by The McConnell Foundation and Vancity. Research independence is one of the IRPP’s core values, and the IRPP maintains editorial control over all publications.
A French translation of this text is available under the title Dynamiser les stratĂ©gies de transformation communautaire. Les projets de dĂ©veloppement des communautĂ© soutenus par l’Ătat ont de meilleures chances de rĂ©ussite.
To cite this document:
Samson, R., Jackson, A., & Chejfec, R. (2025). Empowering community-led transformation strategies: Government-backed community development plans are most likely to succeed. Montreal: Institute for Research on Public Policy.
The authors would like to thank the many experts who reviewed this Policy Brief for their valuable insights and feedback, particularly Tamara Krawchenko, Jacob Greenspon, Community Futures Ontario and the Canadian Community Economic Development Network.
This Policy Brief has undergone rigorous internal and external peer review for academic soundness and policy relevance. The opinions expressed in this Policy Brief are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IRPP or its Board of Directors.
If you have questions about our publications, please contact irpp@nullirpp.org. If you would like to subscribe to our newsletter, IRPP News, please sign up here.
Illustration: Auni Milne, Sumack Loft
Montreal â Ten per cent of Canadians live in communities susceptible to workforce disruption in the coming years because of global and domestic efforts to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, according to a major new research project led by the Institute for Research on Public Policy.
With change on the horizon over the coming decades due to actions in Canada and around the world, the IRPP is calling on federal and provincial governments to better co-ordinate their efforts and carefully tailor their assistance to help communities transform their local economies.
That is just one of the key recommendations to emerge from the IRPPâs groundbreaking and multi-pronged Community Transformations Project. The project is designed to provide Canadian communities with tools and knowledge to help them navigate changes that will unfold over the coming years.
âSusceptible communities may ultimately come out ahead, with a stronger economy and more skilled workforce, but the process of getting from here to there can be painful,â said Rachel Samson, the IRPPâs vice-president of research.
âThere are things governments can do to improve the resilience of communities and help make transformations easier.â
The communities, identified by the Institute through a first-of-its kind interactive map, are often small, rural and less economically diverse. Some, such as auto manufacturing communities, are already in the process of transformation while others, such as those producing natural gas, may have decades before transformation occurs.
In small communities, disruption can spread from individual companies and their workers, and go on to affect local suppliers, services, government revenues and even housing markets.
The IRPP recommends:
Future recommendations from the project will consider skills and training needs, adjustments to Employment Insurance, assistance for major employers and enhanced social supports. By 2026, the project will provide a comprehensive body of research and a suite of analysis, data and recommendations.
âCanadian communities will face a host of challenges in the coming decades at the same time as governments will have to grapple with deep fiscal challenges. We need strategic, collaborative and ultimately locally driven policies and programs that will help our communities seize opportunities and respond to disruptions,â said IRPP president and CEO Jennifer Ditchburn.
For more information, visit irpp.org/community-transformationsThere, you will find:
The Community Transformations Project is an initiative of the Institute for Research on Public Policy, in collaboration with the Canadian Community Economic Development Networkâs Community Data Program, The Energy Mix, and several experts. This project was made possible in part thanks to support from Vancity, the McConnell Foundation, and the Max Bell Foundation. Research independence is one of the IRPP’s core values, and the IRPP maintains editorial control over all publications.
Media contact
ClĂ©a Desjardins, Communications Director â IRPP
cdesjardins@nullirpp.org â 514-245-2139