
Editor’s Note (February 13, 2025): In early 2025, Jeremy Harrison, Saskatchewan’s minister responsible for SaskPower, said the province intends to refurbish its coal-fired power stations, including Estevan’s Boundary Dam and Shand power stations, and keep them operating beyond 2030. This is despite federal government regulations that require the phaseout of coal-fired electricity without carbon-capture technology by then. He said the provincial government would make a final decision on the future of its coal-fired plants by July 1, 2025.
This isn’t the first time Estevan has found itself at a crossroads.
With a history steeped in power generation and the production of coal, oil and gas, the city of 10,900 residents in southeastern Saskatchewan has felt the vagaries that come with its close ties to natural resources — the booms and the busts.
As Canada moves toward decarbonizing its electricity grid, the federal government has enacted regulations that require the phaseout of unabated coal-fired electric power by 2030, a move that is expected to affect the city’s coal miners and people who work at the coal-fired power plants. As the deadline approaches, many in Estevan are concerned about what effect the phaseout will have on their jobs, their incomes and their way of life.
Residents are also worried about the effects other climate policies will have on their community, particularly on the agriculture and oil-producing sectors.
At the same time, several emerging clean-energy projects — including a small modular nuclear reactor, a solar farm and a geothermal power facility — are providing hope and new opportunities.
The consistent message that emerged from our interviews with community members is that Estevan — “the Energy City” — has the cohesion, resilience, skills and assets to manage the transformation and build new sources of economic growth. But they are also concerned that their lives and livelihoods are about to be upended, that they have little say over the coming changes and that they lack the agency to chart their own course.
About one-third of Saskatchewan’s electric power is generated by coal at three generating stations, including the Boundary Dam Power Station in Estevan. Two coal mines supply the power plants. Westmoreland Coal Company’s Estevan mine supplies Boundary Dam’s four-unit facility.
The federal regulations mean that operating a coal-fired power station after 2030 will be permitted only with the use of carbon capture and storage that meets strict emission performance standards. Boundary Dam’s Unit 3 facility is the only coal-fired power plant in Canada that uses this technology.
Estevan residents are deeply concerned about the 2030 deadline for phasing out coal-fired electric generating stations and the federal clean-electricity regulations aiming to achieve net zero electricity production by 2035, which would mean the phaseout of coal power with carbon capture and storage as well. They are worried about what it could mean for the workers and their families, a sentiment that came up frequently in our interviews with community members. They fear that it could lead to job losses and business closures, that there won’t be enough new jobs to fill the gap and that they won’t be as well paying.
“At what cost to humanity do we solely focus on the environment?” asked Jackie Wall, former executive director of the Estevan Chamber of Commerce. “We are willing to do whatever it takes to look at a more sustainable future. However, we still need low-income households to be able to feed their children and provide them with a warm place to live,” she said.
However, with SaskPower committed to reducing greenhouse-gas emissions by 50 per cent by 2030 and achieving net zero emissions by 2050, and the Saskatchewan government touting the province’s sustainability credentials to investors, the transition away from coal appears increasingly likely.
Although the coal phaseout is expected to have the biggest impact on coal miners and workers at the power plant, residents are worried about the broader ripple effects on the community. Some raised concern about the potential of falling home prices.
Everyone wants the same basics — a roof over their head, food on the table, a happy life, said Gordon More, executive director of the Southeast TechHub, which provides support for new and emerging technology firms in the Estevan region. “When you take that away from someone, regardless of the reason, it causes a high amount of fear.”
Residents are also wary that change is being imposed on them by outside forces, and they are concerned that the process isn’t putting their needs first. That breeds skepticism, “like questioning the core reason behind the change, questioning climate change,” and leading many in the community to resist the “people who are trying to build a transition that works for all,” More said.
The federal government allocated $35 million over five years through the Canada Coal Transition Initiative to help workers and communities across Canada that rely on coal to adjust by supporting skills development and economic diversification activities — including nearly $3 million for Estevan. But the funding, which was launched in 2018, ended March 31, 2023. A separate $150-million infrastructure fund is set to end in 2025, with Estevan receiving $7.75 million for the revitalization of its downtown.
More said the amount pales compared to what has been pledged by the U.S. and the European Union. He also noted that Collie, a town in southwest Australia with a population of about 7,600, is receiving AU$662 million from the state government for coal mine decommissioning, attracting new investments and local training initiatives.
He encapsulated many of the community’s frustrations in an open letter to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, saying that he has received little support from the federal government in his efforts to secure new employment opportunities. “As I try to implement ways to help replace the loss, all I receive is platitudes from Canada’s leadership,” he wrote.
Estevan received $5 million from the Saskatchewan government in September 2024 to support the coal transition and the Southeast TechHub; the amount was in addition to $8 million previously announced by the province.
The city has been working to foster collaboration between the provincial and federal governments, added Roy Ludwig, Estevan’s former mayor. “We need increased help, increased dialogue, increased collaboration between the province and the federal government to help these communities in transition be successful,” he said. “I want to get them to understand our situation and work collaboratively, set aside the posturing on both sides, roll up their sleeves, and work with us to find the solutions that will help us be successful. That’s always been our goal, to set aside the animosities.”
Estevan’s new mayor Anthony Sernick, elected on November 13, 2024, said in an all-candidates forum than he is determined to actively pursue multiple new economic development opportunities.
Agriculture and oil and gas production
Policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions are also expected to have an impact on local oil and gas production and the community’s other major employer, agriculture.
Saskatchewan is the second largest producer of crude oil after Alberta, and the region of Weyburn-Estevan is one of the province’s four main oil-producing regions. There are also several natural gas production and processing facilities in the area.
The federal government has announced measures to cap oil and gas emissions at 35 per cent below 2019 levels by 2030 and to lower methane emissions generated by oil and gas producers. The measures have been strongly opposed by the Saskatchewan government and have put the two sides at loggerheads.
The community has seen the ups and downs of the oil and gas sector before. When oil prices dropped in 2015 and 2016, it led to business closures, layoffs and lower housing prices.
Another major sector in the community is agriculture. Estevan has over 200 agricultural businesses producing a range of products, including canola, wheat, hay and beef.
Agricultural producers are concerned that the federal carbon price, another initiative to curb greenhouse-gas emissions linked to climate change, will result in higher input costs. They have called for exemptions for natural gas, propane and fertilizers, among other things; gasoline and diesel fuel used on a farm are already exempt.
Ian Boxall, president of the Agricultural Producers Association of Saskatchewan, in September 2023 testimony before the Senate Standing Committee on Agriculture and Forestry, said that new clean-burning energy sources like hydrogen, wind and solar hold promise but their application remains limited because they can’t yet match the reliability of existing energy sources for heating barns and drying grain.
“Those technologies are not ready to do what we need done in the cold of a Saskatchewan winter,” he said. “We want to get away from fossil fuel use,” he added. “What is going to power my tractor or my combine for 18 hours a day in the field in the spring? What is going to power the locomotive for the products that are grown in Saskatchewan — in the middle of the country — to get it to port?”
According to the association’s calculations, a $65-per-tonne fuel charge costs a Saskatchewan grain farmer about $5.17 an acre. Farmers with employees will be able to receive compensation from the Canada Carbon Rebate for Small Business announced in the April 2024 federal budget, which includes retroactive payments covering 2019 to 2023.
Although concerns run high throughout the community, interview participants also expressed hope and pride in Estevan’s resilience, skills and spirit of innovation.
The fossil fuel and mining industries have generated well-paying jobs over the years and a highly skilled workforce, including engineers, welders, mechanics, electricians and heavy equipment operators, who typically earn higher than average wages. In the Estevan area, the median annual income of workers in coal mining was $149,000 in 2021 compared to $53,600 for workers in all industries.
“It’s a great living,” said Ludwig, who worked in coal mining for 45 years before retiring in 2021. “The miners make good money, they spend good money,” and much of it in the community, he added.
The coal mining and power industries are the major employer in Estevan and surrounding communities. But more than that, it is a way of life that goes back generations. This has brought cohesion and strength to Estevan, Ludwig said. Many residents trace their family roots back to countries like Wales and have a shared memory of the Estevan coal miners’ strike of 1931. “It gets to be generational,” he said.
“Estevan’s greatest strength is its ability to recognize when we need to innovate,” said Tania Andrist, executive director of innovation and applied research at Southeast College, one of Saskatchewan’s seven regional community colleges, which has a campus in Estevan. “There’s an entrepreneurial spirit,” perhaps because of its proximity to the U.S. border or its distance from decision-makers, she said. She sees the economic transformation underway as an incentive for continued innovation.
Ashley Drobot, business development officer at the geothermal energy company DEEP Earth Energy Production Corp., said Estevan’s location in southeast Saskatchewan has fostered a greater sense of independence than communities in the western part of the province, which tend to have closer ties to Alberta. The city’s location has made it easier for Estevan to develop its own industries and a large share of the town’s services are provided by its many local small businesses. Its proximity to U.S. markets, established rail connections and connection to the Saskatchewan electricity grid provide additional advantages.
With more than 3,200 full-time employees across the province, including about 300 in Estevan, SaskPower — the provincial utility that operates the Boundary Dam generating station — is a large presence in Estevan and surrounding communities. The utility values the skills its employees bring to their jobs, said chief operating officer Kory Hayko. As the transformation process unfolds, “we spend a lot of time in those facilities talking about the impacts on our folks,” he said. “Every employee, every person has choices in their life. What the company is trying to do is make all those choices very clear, but very importantly, we want the employees to choose SaskPower,” Hayko said.
The utility is working to identify new opportunities for its workforce in the long term. But for now, qualified personnel are needed to keep existing power plants running. And, amid an economy-wide labour shortage and an aging workforce, the current focus is on maximizing deployment of employees’ existing skills, and not yet on retraining, SaskPower said.
Economic development
Many in Estevan have pinned their hopes on carbon capture and storage to sustain the coal industry beyond 2030. Boundary Dam’s CCS system is designed to capture up to 100 per cent of sulphur dioxide and 90 per cent of carbon dioxide emissions. According to SaskPower, more than 6 million tonnes of carbon dioxide have been captured since operations began.
However, the system, which was installed in 2014, has had technical issues and has fallen short of expectations. An analysis by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis found that Boundary Dam is not meeting its carbon capture targets. The International CCUS Knowledge Centre, based in Regina, warned that it would be very difficult for carbon capture to meet the federal 2035 target date for grid decarbonization given the current state of the technology. SaskPower is, however, considering shifting the facility to natural gas to add additional grid resilience in times of high electricity demand.
Several new early-stage clean-energy developments are underway in the Estevan area. DEEP Earth Energy is working to establish Canada’s first large-scale geothermal power facility, with the potential to produce up to 200 megawatts of clean power. Geothermal power is generated from heat deposits contained in the earth. DEEP Earth Energy recently announced a partnership with Oppy to establish a greenhouse that will use heat generated by the geothermal facility.
In addition, the federal government is working with provinces and territories to enable the deployment of small modular reactors (SMRs), a new type of nuclear power technology. SaskPower has selected the Estevan area as the site of the province’s first SMR. It has identified two potential sites and is expected to make a final decision in 2025. The federal government has committed $74 million in funding for Estevan’s SMR development. If approved, the reactor could begin producing power in about 10 years, although there is some uncertainty around the timeline and cost given that it is a new technology.
The federal government announced in December 2024 that it would provide $265 million to fund several new clean energy projects in Saskatchewan, including $2.7 million for a 1.4 megawatt solar project in Estevan, owned in part by White Bear First Nation. About $256.7 million will go to SaskPower to upgrade its infrastructure and increase the distribution system’s capacity in various locations across rural Saskatchewan.
SaskPower is also working with Iyuhána Solar LP to build a 100-megawatt solar facility, the province’s largest to date, near Estevan. Construction on the facility is expected to start in 2025, creating jobs in the area, and operation could begin at the end of 2026.
The project is being built in partnership with Ocean Man First Nation, which holds a 10 per cent equity stake in the project. Ocean Man Chief Connie Big Eagle said in a news release that the project will bring employment and revenue that “will provide stability and sustainability to our band.”
In Weyburn, about a one-hour drive from Estevan, Enbridge and a consortium of First Nations and the Métis Nation-Saskatchewan have announced plans to develop a wind energy project, which is expected to produce 200 megawatts of power, enough to power more than 100,000 homes annually. The proposed development is expected to start operation in 2027.
The First Nations and Métis partners will have the opportunity to acquire 30 per cent equity ownership in the project. “This is a game changer for Indigenous Nations, Métis and First Nations,” said Chief Matthew Peigan of the Pasqua First Nation, one of the consortium members, in a news release. “This project will produce emissions-free electricity for Saskatchewan and provide a stable source of revenue that will benefit our people for many years to come.” However, some Weyburn residents have opposed the development, citing concerns about health and noise.
Several interview participants noted that these new projects present opportunities to deploy some of the same skills workers use in their existing jobs. For example, many of the trades that are essential to coal-fired power production could support a small modular reactor. However, the overall impact of the transformation on employment is highly dependent on the projects selected and their timeline.
Roy Ludwig, the former mayor, cited the SMR and Boundary Dam’s carbon capture and storage facility as two potential future sources of employment. “We’re hoping the powers that be federally and provincially can keep the coal mine running in some fashion until the nuclear plant is up and running,” he said.
The decommissioning and remediation process after the coal mine shuts down could last long enough to carry the current mine workforce through to retirement, he added. The next generation of workers won’t have access to the same coal mining jobs but will be able to pursue other training and job opportunities, he said.
Drawing on the federal coal transition infrastructure funding, Estevan is revitalizing its downtown in the hopes of attracting new businesses. Ludwig and others raised several possible business opportunities, including wind turbine blade recycling, greenhouses, drone monitoring for remote facilities, an auto parts recycling facility and a potential grain processing initiative, among other things.
“Individually, it’s a handful of jobs, but collectively, it will help mitigate some of the issues we have,” said Ludwig.
Another possibility is battery storage. SaskPower has brought its first battery system into operation and expects to add more storage in different locations — potentially including Estevan — as it looks at new grid interconnections with adjacent provinces and U.S. states, Hayko said.
Some interview participants also raised the possibility of using coal for purposes other than burning it. “Coal is not the problem,” said Jackie Wall, the former chamber of commerce executive director. “The problem is burning coal for power production, but there are a lot of other applications that coal can be a part of in other industries,” such as graphite or graphene, a substance used in solar cells, batteries and fuel cells.
Merissa Scarlett, the new executive director of Estevan’s Chamber of Commerce, wants the city to capture as many opportunities as possible, not just to replace what is being lost, but to create an even bigger economy down the road. “There will not be one thing that replaces jobs lost, but we can strengthen the local economy with many smaller investments,” she said.
Skills and training
Southeast College’s Estevan campus sees itself as an integral part of the transformation and is establishing itself as a training centre for sustainable energy technologies.
With SaskPower set to procure 100 megawatts of new solar capacity, the college is in discussions with Ocean Man First Nation on a land-based training program to help prepare their citizens for new labour opportunities, said Tania Andrist, the college’s executive director of innovation and applied research.
“We see ourselves as the solution,” she said. “We’re going to have to figure out in the next 10 years how to deliver the program that will really serve the community in the best way possible” through a combination of research collaborations, partnerships with industry and investment deals.
The college’s Centre for Sustainable Innovation is working in partnership with the Southeast TechHub on plans to open an Innovation Centre for Energy Development to support various applied research and training programs.
One potential initiative is the Hydrogen Hub, a project to assess the use of Estevan’s lignite coal to produce hydrogen. Other initiatives include a solar-powered data centre, an organic chemistry lab and a microgrid to provide training and product development for various clean-energy projects.
Estevan also faces challenges in attracting and retaining workers. The community has a hard time filling health-care positions and newcomers in lower-wage positions can find it challenging with no public transit or bus to and from Regina. “We need affordable transportation options and local amenities to attract workers to Estevan and to encourage youth to stay” said city councillor Shelly Veroba, who chaired the Community Safety and Well-Being Plan advisory committee.
Perhaps even more than the transformation itself, interview participants expressed concern about a lack of local control and agency over the coming changes — that their way of life is about to be disrupted, and that the community will have little say over the process or the community’s future.
Some wondered how influential a small community like Estevan and a province with no MPs in the federal government caucus can be. “Those things matter…when people are setting policy and determining where funding goes,” Andrist said. “Being unable to reach the prime movers is a barrier sometimes.”
“If there’s a bunch of investment going around, how do we secure that kind of investment and excitement?” rather than having it concentrated in larger cities like Saskatoon or Calgary, she asked.
Some questioned whether decision-makers from outside Estevan really understand local needs. “Spend a week here in the winter, and don’t come in a suit and tie,” urged Andria Brady, general manager at Community Futures Sunrise in Weyburn. “Summer here is beautiful but come when we need the heat to be on.”
The allocation of the transition funds has also been a source of frustration. “When you’re transitioning a community, you really have to have a dialogue about where the funds will have the most impact,” Wall said. “It would be appreciated if that dialogue were based more on what the community really needed, working in relationship with government agencies to see how taxpayer funds can best be utilized.”
United Way Estevan is concerned that the transition could have a significant impact on donations. Estevan tends to be a generous community, and the United Way’s 2024 telethon raised a record amount, in large part thanks to donations from SaskPower, Westmoreland Coal and their workers.
“Although there are many positive opportunities in the works, these take time, and if there are layoffs without transition plans in place, the community will need increased social supports including those for mental health and addictions,” said Heidi Hesselink, executive director of United Way Estevan. “If the United Way sees a major drop in donations at the same time, it could mean cuts to funding for the agencies that provide these services just when they are needed most,” she said.
United Way Estevan president Mark Pettitt argues that workers will also need support to help manage the financial consequences. “These families should receive guidance, similar to the support farmers get when they are in debt,” he said. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada provides the Farm Debt Mediation Service, which provides free financial counselling and mediation.
Interviewees had mixed views about proposed alternative energy projects under development and some wondered whether the projects would be feasible and could provide reliable power at affordable rates. There’s support for the proposed geothermal and SMR developments because they are seen as similar to the work that oilfield and coal workers do now, whereas solar, wind and battery storage are seen as a bigger leap with fewer job opportunities.
Residents are also divided on the need for a coal phaseout and some questioned whether new job and business-development alternatives will be in place by 2030. “There are people who are resistant, and people who are accepting and looking for opportunity,” Andrist said. But, either way, “the market is demanding it.”
Frustrations run perhaps deepest of all over the polarization that the transformation has engendered among political parties and levels of government. “Politics on all sides can really make this a pain,” said Gordon More of the Southeast TechHub. “There’s not enough listening going on.”
“There’s a mindset here that everybody down east is evil and nobody listens,” added Andria Brady. “And the politicians in Ottawa do need to listen.”
Several people called on the different orders of government to work in partnership rather than opposition. “It should be more about how we can do this together and how we facilitate it,” Brady added. “You’re never going to get anything by fighting each other,” but the outcome could be different and far better “if we all work together and listen to each other.”
Still, some interview participants see hopeful signs that a sense of local control can be restored. With the restructuring of the Western Economic Diversification Agency into two regional development agencies, including Prairies Economic Development Canada, “the local representatives have been way more boots on the ground and more engaged with these conversations,” said Jackie Wall. That change will have the greatest impact if senior managers “trust the representatives [they’ve] hired in those communities to provide the valuable feedback on how the funds could be structured to support the transition more effectively,” she added.
The polarization around the economic transformation, entrenched political gridlock between the federal and provincial governments, and the perception that no one is listening emerged as central themes in our conversations with community members and are seen as the biggest obstacles to a successful economic transformation.
The interviews also revealed a deep frustration over slow decision-making that has made it difficult to deliver training opportunities while federal funds were available. Interviewees expressed frustration over programs that ended too soon and that weren’t sufficiently flexible to support local needs and opportunities.
In many of the interviews, better listening emerged as an essential first step in clearing the obstacles to an effective transformation.
On the other hand, there are glimmers of a new economy emerging: in SaskPower’s solar farm; in DEEP Earth Energy’s geothermal development; in the proposed small modular reactor; in a downtown revitalization strategy aimed at building a more diverse, resilient business sector; in the local farm sector; and in efforts to establish a training centre for sustainable energy technologies.
Several of the proposed clean-energy developments include the participation of Indigenous communities.
As these efforts come to fruition, decisions must be driven by the community, residents insist. Estevan will be able to move farther, faster down the road to a decarbonized, diversified economy with outside support. But the path to these decisions must begin with widespread community consultation and consent.
Federal and provincial economic transformation initiatives can only succeed if politicians and policymakers:
In short, Estevan has much to be hopeful for and much to be wary of. Residents know that change is coming and, along with it, opportunities and challenges. They are ready to meet them, but, above all else, they seek the opportunity to have their voices heard.
The Institute for Research on Public Policy (IRPP) has developed a methodology for measuring community susceptibility to workforce disruption as global efforts to address climate change expand. Using three indicators, the methodology scores and ranks census divisions across the country. Based on their ranking, each census division is assigned to one of six groups, ranging from “not susceptible” to “most susceptible.”
The three indicators include Facility Susceptibility (emissions from large facilities relative to the size of the community), Intensity Susceptibility (proportion of employment in emissions-intensive sectors), and Market Susceptibility (proportion of employment in globally traded sectors expected to undergo market transformations).
The analysis is available in an interactive map, developed in collaboration with the Community Data Program of the Canadian Community Economic Development Network, on the IRPP’s website (irpp.org/community-transformations). A detailed description of the methodology used is also available on the website.
To complement the mapping exercise, the IRPP selected 10 communities across the country to profile through a series of interviews with people who live and work in the community. Most of the communities selected are located within the most susceptible census divisions, but others were chosen because of anticipated developments or previous experiences. The profiles are meant to cover a diversity of regions and types of economic activity. These snapshots provide additional insight into the challenges and opportunities the communities face and reflect the perspectives of residents.
Estevan, Saskatchewan, is one of the communities selected for a profile. It was chosen because the census division in which it is located — Division #1, Saskatchewan — was among the highest scoring. The score reflects the high proportion of employment in coal mining, oil and gas extraction, and coal power generation.
The Energy Mix conducted interviews with community members in Estevan, the largest municipality in the census division. The IRPP’s vice president of research also visited to meet with Estevan’s community leaders.
On the following page, we present a breakdown of the susceptibility analysis for Division #1, Saskatchewan (which extends east from Estevan to the Manitoba border and north past Stoughton). Additional information not used in the analysis such as population change, the unemployment rate and demographic characteristics of workers are derived from the 2021 census.
If you have questions about the profile or the analysis, please contact us at
communitytransformations@nullirpp.org.
This Community Profile was published as part of the IRPP’s Community Transformations Project. It was authored by The Energy Mix and the IRPP. The manuscript was copy-edited by Rosanna Tamburri with assistance from Abigail Jackson. Ricardo Chejfec was responsible for the data analysis. Proofreading was by Zofia Laubitz, editorial co-ordination was by Étienne Tremblay, production was by Chantal Létourneau, publication management was by Rosanna Tamburri and art direction was by Anne Tremblay. Photos are by James Caswell and courtesy of DEEP Earth Energy and SaskPower.
The Community Transformations Project was funded in part by The McConnell Foundation and Vancity. Research independence is one of the IRPP’s core values, and the IRPP maintains editorial control over all publications.
A French translation of this text is available under the title Estevan : la ville énergétique de la Saskatchewan veut tracer sa propre voie.
To cite this document:
Institute for Research on Public Policy. (2025). Estevan: Saskatchewan’s energy city seeks to chart its own course. Montreal: Institute for Research on Public Policy.
We’re grateful to the following people for sharing their ideas, experience and time with us.