Montreal — A new IRPP study sheds light on how generative artificial intelligence (AI) might affect Canadian jobs over the next five years. While some tasks are at risk, whole jobs are not necessarily disappearing. In fact, with the right support and planning, many could be enhanced by AI instead.

Using ChatGPT and the federal government’s occupational and skills information system database, the study’s authors, Matthias Oschinski and Ruhani Walia, assessed the technical ability of generative AI to perform work-related tasks. Their findings suggest that just because AI can do a task doesn’t mean it will replace a job.

“AI’s impact on work depends on a lot more than just the technology itself. Companies also need the right infrastructure, capital, legal permissions and organizational readiness. That means many jobs are only at risk if these other pieces fall into place,” says Oschinski.

The study found three key trends:

• Tasks, not jobs, are at risk: Clerical and data-heavy tasks face the highest exposure, but AI is unlikely to fully replace occupations. Instead, it may reshape how work is done.
• Some skills are more resilient: Jobs that rely on human connection — like teaching, caregiving, or leadership — are far less likely to be automated and could actually be complemented by AI tools.
• The potential for impact varies by region and industry: Some areas, especially in the northern territories and in sectors like transportation or warehousing, could see more disruption. Others, such as education, are more insulated.

Crucially, the authors urge governments and employers to take a proactive approach. To get the most out of AI — and to protect jobs — they recommend targeted investments in skills training, especially for abilities that AI can’t replicate, like problem-solving, collaboration, and people management. They also recommend governments embrace regional differences in workforce strategies and invest in the data and infrastructure needed to get the most of this rapidly evolving technology.

“Generative AI could be a powerful tool to improve Canada’s productivity. But it won’t happen on its own. We need coordinated action to build the right workforce and ensure that the benefits are shared,” says Walia.