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For instance, in census divisions No. 1 of Saskatchewan (Estevan) and No. 16 of Alberta (Wood Buffalo), susceptible occupations are concentrated in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction — with coal mining in the former and oilsands production in the latter. Oxford’s susceptible occupations cluster is in automotive manufacturing, while Division No. 3, Newfoundland and Labrador (Channel-Port aux Basques) shows susceptibility in fishing and marine transportation occupations. Some occupations are susceptible across multiple locations, with transport truck drivers, material handlers and heavy equipment operators particularly exposed to economic and technological disruptions despite their critical role in Canada’s industrial landscape.

Figure 2. Seven communities across Canada were selected to illustrate how the approach works across different economic profiles

^{Source: Authors, based on IRPP Community Transformations Project susceptibility methodology (Chejfec et al., 2025).
Notes: Community susceptibility was assessed using 2021 Census data across three metrics: facility emissions, employment in emissions-intensive sectors, and labour force in globally traded sectors. Susceptible occupations were selected based on each community’s dominant industrial structure. See Box 1 for methodology details.}

Source: Authors, based on IRPP Community Transformations Project susceptibility methodology (Chejfec et al., 2025).
Notes: Community susceptibility was assessed using 2021 Census data across three metrics: facility emissions, employment in emissions-intensive sectors, and labour force in globally traded sectors. Susceptible occupations were selected based on each community’s dominant industrial structure. See Box 1 for methodology details.

An overview of the industries that anchor the economic fabric of the seven communities is presented below.

1. Division No. 3, Newfoundland and Labrador (Channel-Port aux Basques)

Situated at Newfoundland’s southwestern tip, Division No. 3 relies heavily on maritime transport, with 14 per cent of its workforce in transportation and warehousing. The headquarters of Marine Atlantic, the ferry that travels between Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, is in Port aux Basques. Other top industries are health care & social assistance, and agriculture, forestry, fishing & hunting. Water transport deck and engine crew positions account for nearly three per cent of local employment, highlighting the community’s exposure to maritime sector transitions.

The ferry is not at risk of closure, as the service is constitutionally protected under legislation enacted when Newfoundland and Labrador joined the federation in 1949. It is also considered part of the Trans-Canada Highway. However, workers could experience disruption as Marine Atlantic fulfils its commitment to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

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Table 1

Table 2

Appendix

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